ANALISIS DETERMINAN YANG MEMPENGARUHI EKSPOR MOBIL CBU (COMPLETELY BUILT-UP) INDONESIA KE CHILE SETELAH IMPLEMENTASI IC-CEPA (INDONESIA CHILE COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT)
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export,
CBU Cars,
international trade,
ekspor,
mobil CBU,
perdagangan internasional
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of the bilateral trade agreement, Indonesia-Chile Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IC-CEPA), and the determinants influencing Indonesia’s Completely Built-Up (CBU) car export performance to Chile. The research employs the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method with key determinants including Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Chile’s GDP, real exchange rates, Chile’s inflation rate, and the IC-CEPA dummy variable. The trade data analyzed covers the period from 2014 to 2023. The results indicate that IC-CEPA positively influenced the growth of Indonesia's CBU car exports to Chile, particularly after 2019. Indonesia’s and Chile’s GDP contributed positively to exports, while real exchange rates showed a negative effect. Chile’s inflation rate also positively impacted the export value of CBU cars. This study concludes that IC-CEPA, along with other determinants, plays a crucial role in driving Indonesia’s CBU car exports to Chile. However, sustainable strategies are required to fully optimize the existing opportunities.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perjanjian dagang bilateral Indonesia-Chile Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IC-CEPA) serta determinan yang memengaruhi kinerja ekspor mobil CBU (Completely Built-Up) Indonesia ke Chile. Metode yang digunakan adalah Ordinary Least Square (OLS), dengan variabel determinan meliputi Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia, PDB Chile, nilai tukar riil, tingkat inflasi Chile, dan variabel Dummy IC-CEPA. Data perdagangan yang dianalisis mencakup periode 2014-2023. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa IC-CEPA memberikan dampak positif terhadap peningkatan nilai ekspor mobil CBU Indonesia ke Chile, khususnya setelah tahun 2019. PDB Indonesia dan PDB Chile berkontribusi positif terhadap ekspor, sementara nilai tukar riil menunjukkan pengaruh negatif. Tingkat inflasi Chile juga terbukti memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap nilai ekspor mobil CBU. Kesimpulan penelitian ini menyatakan bahwa IC-CEPA, bersama dengan faktor determinan lainnya, berperan penting dalam mendorong ekspor mobil CBU Indonesia ke Chile. Namun, diperlukan strategi berkelanjutan untuk memaksimalkan peluang yang ada.
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